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January 10, 2005 Comments: In contrast to Friday's trading, today was a day when all the planning done before hand was discarded when the opening tick came out...Now, there are some of you out there that read these trade set ups carefully and wonder at how many quality trade set ups I show case. Some of you must have scratched your heads and said, "Aren't there days when NOTHING works?" Well, the answer is...yes, there are those days. Especially if you only follow one market. But I'm going to showcase TWO markets I did extensive work on over the weekend, readying myself for a pair of big trades...and got zip. Zilch. Nada. Nothing!!! Wadda ya gonna do?
Looking at the Euro FX market first, I expected either a move lower to re-test Friday's lows *OR* a fast rise out of the hole and a test of the Upper Median Line Parallel, which would be an ideal sale area *IF* it coincided with a Fib retracement to give me some added confidence.
But instead, the market gapped open higher and then basically played dead for the first few hours. It didn't run high enough to get near a high probability sale area, nor did it retrace to an area I found appealing as a "buy" area. In hindsight, I could have been more enthused about buying a sell off that merely filled the gap at 130.82, but that trade location didn't thrill me. I passed on the trade. And by the time price had drifted enough to the right to test the Upper Median Line parallel, it was not high enough to be near a meaningful Fib retracement to add confluence. In short, no Energy Points in this market...Just a bunch of Energy Coiling going on, which isn't that unusual after such a nice move lower all of last week.
Now Let's switch to the Canadian Dollar: |
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This first chart is a 60 minute chart of the Canadian Dollar. I was pondering buying a pullback to the Lower Median Line Parallel [roughly 8100], because of the nice base formed to the left of this up sloping Median Line formation. If price moved lower on Monday morning, I'd monitor this set up and act accordingly. But of course, price gapped higher, so this idea never came into play.
But here's a different look at the Canadian Dollar, with a potential Energy Point sell area at roughly 8140, at the confluence of an up sloping Median Line, a down sloping Upper Median Line and an up sloping Lower Median Line [Thanks to CShooter for pointing out the potential trade area over the weekend on our forum]: |
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You can see that price gapped above the Energy Point and never looked back. The only potential trade location came later in the day, when you mighthave considered selling the test of the Upper Median Line Parallel--but to be honest, I had packed it in by then and gone Pirate Ship Painting [New TV Box, don't you know???].
And so the moral of the story is...there are boring days, days when the work doesn't immediately translate into trades. But I don't push it. If the trade isn't what I was looking for, I don't go out looking for a trade just for the sake of a trade. That generally spells L-O-S-S.
I wish all of you a good trading day tomorrow!
Act, don't Re-act! |
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